Friday, July 4, 2008

New mates










A slew of intriguing (mostly) new possible runnings mates for Senator McCain and/or Senator Obama have come across my radar. On the Republican side, these include former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina, whose already fanned out as a Republican surrogate. One problem with Fiorina, besides the fact that she's not that well known and a corporate executive might make an easy target for Democrats: the Hewlett Packard board eventually fired her (and of course she got a big golden parachute). Adding a woman and someone with some business acumen would spice up the ticket and shore up an admitted McCain weakness: the economy. An equally intriguing McCain running mate possibility: Condeleeza Rice. A former grad student of my New School professor Chuck Tilly: obviously, a smart, articulate woman. But someone who's also tied inexorably to the planning of the Iraq war and the Bush presidency. Still, responding to Obama with an African-American woman candidate could be a smart move. Including either Fiorina or Rice - or others like Governor Palin - might give McCain a shot at capturing some of the women voters who supported Hillary Clinton. A possibility for Senator Obama who I'm not so excited about is former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt, who ran for president in 2000. Gephardt supposedly does well with the kind of blue collar, white Midwestern voters that Senator Clinton was taking from Obama - but I really think this is with leaders in those communities - and especially not younger voters from those communities. Gephardt is about as much a part of the old Congressional D.C. culture as you can get - which cuts far away from Obama's change message - plus he's not a national security expert. (two interesting things about Gephardt: he used to be anti-abortion, and - like Vice President Cheney - he's got a smart lesbian daughter.) A more intriguing possibility: retired Marine General James L. Jones, a tall man with questionable partisan and domestic policy linkages but one that would definitely help the Obama ticket's national security credentials (and Jones may not be as wacky and sexist as Senator Webb.) Jones was a Marine Corps commandant, (like General Clark) a supreme NATO commander, and commanded troops in Afghanistan (not in Iraq - which is probably important to Obama - although Afghanistan is currently as much of a mess as Iraq). One possible problem: few voters have ever heard of Jones. Jones might be protection against a GOP "October surprise": a October 2008 invasion of Iran that pushes voters to put national security credentials at the top of their lists of ticket qualities. Another intriguing possibility: outgoing Nebraska U.S. Senator Chuck Hagel. Hagel's chief qualifications are he's a Republican and yet also a relatively early and bitter critic of the war in Iraq. In addition to not being that well known, however, except for on Iraq, he's a real Republican, with pretty conservative domestic policy views. His addition would help Obama make the bipartisanship/change argument. Someone at the top of both candidate's lists, no doubt: General Colin Powell. Now linked inexorably with the Iraq war, this would no doubt cause Obama to flinch. And it's not clear why McCain would need someone else with foreign policy credentials. Nevertheless, Powell privately came to disagree with President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld about aspects of the war, and (running for vice president - partly to end the war with honor?) might help him redeem himself. Powell is a Republican, but conservative Republicans blasted him for supporting affirmative action and being soft on pro-life when they kept him from seeking the Republican presidential nomination in 2000. Another intriguing possibility for either candidate. For Obama, this would make an all-African American ticket, and one with much more national security credentials - but, definitely not a clear change ticket (as Powell's association with the White House/Washington goes back at least to the Reagan Administration - and he's not young). Including him would also make some anti-Iraq war Democrats go ballistic (as they recall his now we know (perhaps unwitting) lies at the United Nations about weapons of mass destruction). Speaking of reaching across the aisle for a running mate: an intriguing possiblity for Senator McCain remains Connecticut independent Joe Lieberman, Vice President Gore's 2000 running mate who helped him in fact win Florida, the man who would be the first Jewish vice president, and a 2004 Democratic presidential candidate. As most readers know, Lieberman lost a bid to run again as the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate from Connecticut when an anti-war candidate beat him. Lieberman continued to run, as an independent, and won. He still caucuses with the Democrats, but he endorsed McCain for president and has been increasingly tough on the Democrats on foreign policy. Lieberman's endorsement probably didn't help McCain in the Republican primaries - except for in crossover states where independents or even Democrats could vote for McCain - but it should help him in the general election. His addition would help McCain's bipartisan image. Problems: Lieberman isn't young, and - with a few exceptions, like on tort reform - Lieberman is basically a moderate-to-liberal Democrat on most domestic policy issues (the functionally equivalent challenge that Obama would face with Hagel). Still, the possibility of two cross-partisan tickets: McCain-Lieberman vs. Obama-Hagel - is still intriguing, and hasn't really been seen since President Lincoln dumped his Republican vice president, Hannibal Hamlin, and replaced him with War Democrat Andrew Johnson, from east Tennessee (eventually with significant consequences), to go to war against Peace Democrat George McClellan in what was looking to be a very tough election of 1864. One more possible running mate who either candidate could consider (other than Secretary Powell) is New York City Mayor Michael Blomberg, who considered running himself, possibly with Senator Hagel. A popular billionaire Democrat turned Republican turned independent, Blomberg wouldn't help McCain with evangelicals or help Obama with wartime-worried voters. But he might help McCain on the economy and would be reaching across the aisle (sort of) for either candidate.

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